Monday 31 December 2007

Done for the month +96 pips

12-27 Thursday -79 pips
12-31 Monday -99 pips

I was caught short on the USD dollar in the last 3 trading days. This somehow spoiled my chance to end strongly for the month.

From now on, I will be using the table on the right left sidebar to help me gauge the market sentiment of USD dollar on an ongoing basis, as well as to remind me not to ignore warning signs. This should help me prepare better for each trading day.

Btw, wish you all have a prosperous new year 2008! Make sure you check out my simple forex day trading strategy. I will continue to devote my efforts in the new year to improve the application of forex killer swing trading strategies.

Sunday 30 December 2007

News Tading Calendar 12.31.07 - 01.04.08

It's make or break week for the USD dollar once again. Can the job reports released later this week finally come to rescue the poor sentiment around the USD dollar at present?

Monday - Dec 31 (quoted in UK time)

3.00 pm USD Existing Home Sales

Wednesday - 2 Jan
9.30 am GBP Manucturing PMI
3.00 pm USD ISM Manufacturing

Thursday - 3 Jan
1.15pm USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
3.00pm pm USD Factory Orders

Friday - 4 Jan
6.45 am CHF CPI
1.30 pm USD Nonfarm Employment Change
3.oo pm CAD Ivey PMI

Thursday 27 December 2007

Trade the News Entry on USD Durable Good Orders

1.30 pm USD Worse than expected durable good orders

Trade entry:
Time: 9.02 am
Direction: short
Price: 1.4488
Target: 80 pips below
Stop: 80 pips above
Exit: 1.4567 (-79 pips)

The USD dollar fell sharply on very weak durable good data.

Friday 21 December 2007

Done for the week +107 pips

12-21 Friday +17 pips
12-20 Thursday +1 pips
12-19 Wednesday -34 pips
12-18 Tuesday +73 pips
12-17 Monday +50 pips

11 trades (7 Winners, 4 Losers)
Largest profit trade +55 pips
Largest loss trade -22 pips
2 news trade +36 pips (1 Winner, 1 Loser)

Hi, everyone. To build on last week's momentum and to prove that the result was not a fluke, it was important for me to make gains this week. And I made some. All I did was just casual trading by following some simple rules for trade selection. Wednesday should be a profitable day too if the price was not being stalled the whole day and rallied only in the very last minutes before the London close. Unfortunately, I narrowly missed out on that. Anyway, I was happy with the performance as you can't win them all.

Also something new on this site! You can now follow all my trade results on Zulutrade. You can find more info about Zulutrade on my main site. All signals taken came directly from the forex killer signal software.



I will update you again on 27th Dec when the market returns to normal operation . I'll continue to answer your e-mails throughout the week.

Happy Holidays !!!

European Session +17 pips

Closed short GBP/USD at 1.9845 for +17 pips

Adhering to the trading plan, the signal software gave us 1 entry this morning. I exited the position for a profit soon after the release of GBP retail sales report, which was actually better than the forecast. If you follow my blog closely, you will know that I don't like to trade against the news.

Update: As expected, the price indeed moved higher (currently stands at 1.9875) although it was initally stalled after the news. My short entry was at 1.9862.

Thursday 20 December 2007

Done for the day +23 pips?

Closed long USD/CHF at 1.1576 for +23 pips

Long USD/JPY at 113.24 (still open)

A very slow start in the European session. Hence, I was happy to close out my long USD/CHF position for any profit presented during the US session. However, the USD dollar was mixed against the Japanese yen. I am still pondering over my next move and am not giving up yet.

Update: Late price recovery action.
Closed long USD/JPY at 113.02 (-22 pips).
Done for the day +1 pip !

Wednesday 19 December 2007

Done for the day -34 pips

European session trade entries:
Closed short EUR/USD at 1.4392 for -7 pips
Closed long USD/CHF at 1.1542 for -8 pips

Trade the news entry
Closed USD/CAD at 1.0150 for -19 pips

The profits just didn't want to come my way despite the continued sell-off in the GBP/USD market.

Update: I just missed out some last-minute actions near the London close. OMG, what have I missed out?!!

Trade the News Entry on CAD Wholesale Sales

1.30 pm CAD Better than expected wholesale sales

Trade entry:
Time: 12.04 pm
Direction: long
Price: 1.0069
Target: 60 pips above
Stop: 30 pips below
Exit: 1.0050 (-19 pips)

The news came out not in my favour. I didn't wish this to repeat again.

Tuesday 18 December 2007

Done for the day +73 pips

Closed long USD/CHF at 1.1517 for +7 pips
Closed long USD/JPY at 113.26 for +11 pips
Closed short GBP/USD at 2.0141 for +55 pips

European session has been kind to me recently. I managed to finish off my trading routine with some satisfactory results before noon. Hence, I don't need to force myself into trading the US session.

If you happen to have some positive results trading in the US session using forex killer signal entries, I would like to hear from you if possible. You can contact me via email or post me a comment.

Trade the News Entry on GBP CPI Report

9.30 am GBP Lower than expected CPI

Trade entry:
Time: 8.00 am
Direction: Short
Price: 2.0196
Target: 50 pips below
Stop: 50 pips above
Exit: 2.0141 (+55 pips)

I was holding a short position into the news announcement. The news came out in favour of this morning technical setup.

Monday 17 December 2007

Done for the day +50 pips

European Session +50 pips

No news trading today or maybe for the rest of the week. I don't want to put extra pressure on myself and just want to stick to what is working for me right now - simple technical trading with a plan.

European Session +50 pips

Closed short EUR/USD at 1.4377 for +24 pips
Closed short GBP/USD at 2.0126 for +26 pips

The profits came immediately soon after my position openings. But it nearly slipped away. From zero to a maximum paper gain of 70 pips, and backed down to 10 pips. I was hoping them to hit my initial targets of 80 -100 pips.

When the profits realised for the second time (though not as many as the first time round), I got out immediately. (I learnt my lesson here). All of these happened so quickly just in a span of an hour. The price action was simply too wild and I managed to convince myself to be flexible from time to time.

Sunday 16 December 2007

News Event Calendar 12.17.07 - 12.21.07

Monday - Dec 17 (quoted in UK time)
1.30 pm USD Empire State Business Conditions Index
2.00 pm USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions

Tuesday - Dec 18
8.15 am CHF Retail Sales
9.30 am GBP CPI
12.00 pm CAD CPI

Wednesday - Dec 19
9.30 am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes

Thursday - Dec 20
9.30 am GBP GDP
1.30 pm USD GDP
5.00 pm USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Friday - Dec 21
9.30 am GBP Retail Sales
1.30 pm CAD GDP

Q & A with Andreas Kirchberger

Exactly one week ago, forex killer software developer Andreas Kirchberger stumbled upon this site and left me with the following comment:
"Hi thanks for the blog
Do you trade only using FK signals or use different system combinations?
please reply to andreaskirchb AT googlemail.com"
Hence, I replied to him in e-mail and also took the opportunity to summarise our queries so far and forward them to Andreas. Below are some answers I managed to obtain from him. You might be interested in this.

[Read more - full post on ScoutForex Main site]

Friday 14 December 2007

Done for the week +215 pips

12-14 Friday +39 pips
12-13 Thursday +82 pips
12-12 Wednesday +41 pips
12-12 Tuesday +53 pips
12-11 Monday No closed trade

6 trades (5 Winners, 1 Loser)
Largest profit trade +61 pips
Largest loss trade -8 pips
No news trade


European Session +39 pips

Closed long USD/JPY at 112.80 for +39 pips.

I stayed bullish on the USD dollar this morning. I found only one entry that complied with the system entry requirement. I was quite happy with the Minimum Acceptable Profit Target of 40 pips.

Thursday 13 December 2007

Done for the day +82 pips

European Session +82 pips

It was a strong rally day for the USD dollar. I was spot on this morning. Unfortunately, I forgot to do my "trade the news" entry in the afternoon session due to my other work schedule. I would have kept my bullish stance on the USD dollar before the news announcement.

European Session +82 pips

Closed long USD/CHF at 1.1361 for +48 pips
Closed short EUR/USD at 1.4688 for +34 pips

Initially, I wanted to push for a 100-pip profit target. But, it was hard to come by.

If you have followed my earlier post, you will know that I am currently aiming 40-60 pips for a position. I am still using the forex killer signals but with my own game plan. Make sure you check it out.

It's good to see direct positive outcomes on my trading as a result of keeping and sharing my trading logs. Feel free to subscribe to my feeds: AutoFX, ScoutForex for the latest content update.

Wednesday 12 December 2007

Done for the day +41 pips

Closed long USD/JPY at 117.75 for +41 pips

I am back to technical trading. Slow but steady progress.

Tuesday 11 December 2007

Done for the day +53 pips

Closed GBP/USD at 2.0424 for +61 pips
Closed USD/JPY at 111.77 for -8 pips

I am not going to trade the US interest rate announcement this time round. Despite the imminent rate cut from the FED, I am still bullish on the US dollar.

Sunday 9 December 2007

News Event Calendar 12.10.07 - 12.14.07

Monday - Dec 10 (quoted in UK time)
1.15 pm CAD Housing Starts

Tuesday - Dec 11
7.15 pm USD Interest Rate Statement

Wednesday - Dec 12
1.30 pm USD Trade Balance

Thursday - Dec 13
8.30 am CHF Interest Rate Statement
1.30 pm USD Retail Sales / PPI

Friday - Dec 14
1.30 pm USD CPI

Friday 7 December 2007

Done for the week -48 pips

10 trades
5 winners
4 losers
1 breakeven

It should have been a positive week if i were not stopped out for -98 instead of -35. Bad execution by the brokerage firm.

Finally, the most eventful week of the month (with respect to major economic news releases) comes to an end. A lot of experienced technical traders (e.g. here and here) tend to not mess with fundamentals development in week like this and they usually choose to stand aside. And it is probably a wiser decision. Anyhow, I had an interesting week. Hope we can get back on the technical side of trading next week.

Trade the News Entry on USD Non-Farm Payrolls

1.30 pm USD Slightly better than expected job report

Trade entry: USD/JPY
Time: 12.57 pm
Direction: Long
Price: 111.52
Target: 70 pips above
Stop: 35 pips below
Exit: 111.70 (+18 pips)

Trade entry: EUR/USD
Time: 12.57 pm
Direction: Short
Price: 1.4638
Target: 70 pips below
Stop: 35 pips above
Exit: 1.4674 (-36 pips)

Trade re-entry: EUR/USD
Time: 1.47 pm
Direction: Short
Price: 1.4659
Target: 70 pips below
Stop: 35 pips above
Exit: 1.4660 (-1 pips)

What a disappointment! The number was not as strong as suggested by the earlier ADP employment report. Tricky and lame price action once again.

Trade the News Entry on CAD Employment Report

12pm CAD Stronger than expected increase in employment

Trade entry:
Time: 11.40 pm
Direction: Long
Price: 1.0124
Target: 70 pips above
Stop: 35 pips below
Exit: 1.0027 (-98 pips???)

Bad brokering and non-guarantee stop. I saw the fast-changing price but the execution platform just stopped functioning. Speechless now.

Job Report Day for CAD and USD

How to trade November non-farm payrolls?

My strategy: The dollar has been strengthening for the better part of this week, hence I am looking forward to buy more USD dollar. I will be assessing the price action for this morning and most impotantly waiting for the signal confirmation from the signal software.

Thursday 6 December 2007

Done for the day - 37 pips

Closed long USD/JPY at 111.10 +15 pis
Closed long USD/CAD at 1.0104 - 52 pips

Frustrated. I let the winners slip away. A late price reversal during the London close wiped out all my earlier gains. I should be extra careful as soon as the price momentum was waning. I should try my best to end the day in profit. Bear with me, I am still perfecting the skill.

Trade the News Entry on GBP Interest Rate Announcement

12:00 pm GBP Surprise rate-cut to 5.5% from 5.75%

No trade entered.

The signal software has been pointing to GBP weakness the whole morning. Well, I missed a chance to enter based on that. Luckily, my own EA system has managed to pull a winner from this news event.

I am still looking after this morning positions.

European Session

Trade entries this morning:

Market: USD/JPY
Timeframe: H1
Technical Triggers: Short term
Direction: Long
Price entered: 110.95
Target: 70 pips above
Stop: 70 pips below

Market: USD/CAD
Timeframe: H1
Technical Triggers: Short and long terms
Direction: Long
Price entered: 1.0156
Target: 70 pips above
Stop: 70 pips below

Wednesday 5 December 2007

Done for the day -40 pips

Trade the News Entry - 40 pips

Trade the News Entry on USD ADP Employment Change

1.15pm USD Stronger than expected increase in ADP employment

Trade entry:
Time: 1.08 pm
Direction: Long
Price: 1.4725
Target: 80 pips above
Stop: 40 pips below
Exit: 1.4685 (-40 pips)

Comment: Perhaps I should have exited the position immediately since the news was not on my side. Technically strong setup, even Better system got it wrong too ! ;-)

Tuesday 4 December 2007

Done for the day +146 pips

European Session Entry +100 pips

Trade the News Entry + 46 pips

It was a great day. In fact, It was the biggest one-day gain since the start. Thanks everyone, I have tidied up my strategy since my last review of the signal software, and everything looks organised on this site too.

Trade the News Entry on CAD Interest Rate Decision

2.00pm CAD Surprise interest rate cut to 4.25% from 4.5%

Trade entry:
Time: 1.58 pm (2 minutes from the announcement)
Direction: Long
Price: 1.0053
Target: 70 pips above
Stop: 25 pips above
Exit: 1.0099 (+46 pips)

Comment: A 100-pip mover. Once again, bullish price action as strength begets strength (as seen before). It would have fetched the 70-pip target if I gave a little more room for the price to manoeuver. Still it was a good 2-1 reward-risk ratio. So, it is important to have a trading plan in place. There are more big news events coming up this week.

European Session +100 pips

The signals worked out fine this morning.

Closed long EUR/USD at 1.4680 +29 pips
Closed short USD/CHF at 1.1236 +71 pips

Monday 3 December 2007

Done for the day +0

Trade history:

1) Trade the news:
Closed long GBP/USD at 2.0615 for +70 pips
Closed short GBP/USD at 2.0661 for -17 pips

2) Forex killer signals (8 am UK time):
Closed long EUR/USD at 1.4659 for -23 pips
Closed short USD/CHF at 1.1293 for -30 pips

Trade the News Entry on USD ISM

3.00 pm USD Slightly better than expected ISM Manufacturing Index

Trade entry:
Time: 2.33pm
Direction: Short
Price: 2.0644
Target: 70 pips below
Stop: 35 pips above
Exit: 2.0661 (-17 pips)

Forex Killer Trade Exit Strategies

Question from Sean:
"My question is around the timeframes for the Short Term and Long Term signals. What sort of position open to close timeframes are you using the signals for ?

If you're using H1 timeframes, is Forex Killer suggesting that the Short Term signal should be opened and closed within a single one hour period?"

My reply:
I can understand your confusion. Forex Killer doesn't provide you with a clear exit strategy. But it recommends you to either exit your trade when the signal turned into a no trade condition or into the opposite direction you've taken. Hence, continuous price monitoring using the latest H1 closing prices is still required after your initial trade entry.

In summary, exit with no trade condition will be the most conservative approach, followed by exit with a reversal in the trading signal. My strategy is the less conservative one, I use fixed stop loss and exit only after a few hours later.

So, trading results will vary depending on which time frame you trade and your chosen exit strategy.

Trade the News Entry on GBP PMI

You get all the excitement when trading the news ahead. Also easy, painless, straight forward for any news trader - I wish every trade was like this one!

9.30 am GBP Better than expected PMI Manafacturing Report

Trade entry:
Time: 9.04 am
Direction: Long
Price: 2.0545
Target: 70 pips above
Stop: 35 pips below
Exit: 2.0615 (+70 pips)

Sunday 2 December 2007

Trading the News Strategy

I will be watching very closely the following major economic events this week - the most important week of the whole calendar month on economic development. Let see whether we can capitalise the use of forex killer software to trade ahead of the news.

Monday - Dec 3 (quoted in UK time)
9.30 am GBP Manufacturing PMI
3.00 pm USD ISM Manufacturing Index

Tuesday - Dec 4
2.00 pm CAD Interest Rate Statement

Wednesday - Dec 5
1.15 pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

Thursday - Dec 6
12.00 pm GBP Interest Rate Statement
12.45 pm EUR Interest Rate Statement
3.00 pm CAD Ivey PMI

Friday - Dec 7
12.00 pm CAD Employment Change
1.30 pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change

Saturday 1 December 2007

End of Trading Month

It's end of the trading month. The net results of November is -103 pips. All the trading losses came from the last two trades where I entered my positions- miscalculatedly - based on the long term signal trigger alone (see here) .

As seen in my previous trades, the signals seem to work well when considering both the short and long term triggers simultaneously (e.g. here and here). Though it is not conclusive, yet it starts to make more sense to me. Hence, more attention should be paid on the short term signal algorithm, and using the long term trigger as trend checking and confirmation instead. These results should clear some of my confusions for the new software version. (Long term signal algorithm was not included when the software was first used.)

I admit there was some uncertainties and mistakes along the way . Here come a brand new month, December. Keen to do it over again and with more hindsight this time.

Related post:
>> Forex killer trade exit strategies and long term signal trigger
>> My New Forex Killer Day Trading Routine

5 Latest Articles Which You Might Have Missed Out ...