Thursday 31 July 2008

Ready for Non-Farm Payrolls Action Thursday

European Session
No. of signal recommendations: 2
End-of-session results: USD/CAD (0 pip) and EUR/JPY (-40)
Dynamic entries: no

Picked up some signals but didn't enter on those. I shall wait again for the better trade setups. Looking forward for some serious actions in tomorrow non-farm payrolls job report.

US Session
No. of signal recommendations: 2
End-of-session results: EUR/USD (-70 pips), GBP/JPY (-5 pips) and CHF/JPY (+10 pips)

100-pip System
Dynamic entries: 3
Max profits:
EUR/USD: -
GBP/JPY: +40 pips
CHF/JPY: +30 pips

An exciting day in the forex market after all. We had mixed results for our 100-pip signals after the US economic news releases. It was a perfect action day for news trading. I hope we can get another strong reaction from tomorrow NFP job report.

Wednesday 30 July 2008

Market Timing Issue Wednesday

European Session
No. of signal recommendations: 2
End-of-session results: GBP/JPY (-10 pips) and AUD/JPY (-15 pips)
Max potential: 30 pips

I went bottom fishing in the yen-crosses markets today. Despite having the right trade idea, I was not so lucky with the market timing. On hindsight, I should have picked those trades one session later. Despite having the trading plan in place, things were not so straight forward after all.

Tuesday 29 July 2008

100-pip Target Hit - GBP/USD

Well...this was the perfect setup for getting into long USD positions. There were many opportunities in other markets too as the US dollar gained ground today.

Profitable Trade Setup with GBP/USD Tuesday

European Session
No. of signal recommendations: 1
End-of-session results: GBP/USD (+40 pips)
Max potential: Over 40 pips

100-pip System
Dynamic entries: 1
Current profit:
GBP/USD: +100 Target hit !

>> Click Here for My Live Forex Trading Sessions

I was patiently waiting yesterday and it paid off this morning as the trade opportunity surfaced in the early trading session. We have so far locked in +175 pips for the end-of-session system with the major pairs this month.

Monday 28 July 2008

Patiently Waiting and Potential Trend Change Monday

Monday
No Trade

The US dollar was weakening in today's market action. Based on our latest technical bias, we'll be positioning ourselves to get into long US dollar positions this week.

Another trend score from Smart Scan Chart Analysis also confirms that positive longer term is weakening for EUR/USD. The market action could signal the start of a major trend change. Hence a weak uptrend. See the statistics below:

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, EURUSD scored +65 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

Sunday 27 July 2008

Profits vs. Drawdowns for Forex Autopilot, Bogie and Tracer EAs

We still have four trading days left for the month of July. For my record, it's going to be another profitable month for both my Forex Autopilot and Bogie expert advisor trading. I'll be reviewing their individual performance again at the end of the month.

Here is my last month's review
(first posted on my main site):

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In general, June was a very good month for trading. There were a a lot of sizable moves intraday and overnight reactions which stirred up the forex markets. Euro (EUR/USD) was the most interesting pair to watch since it recorded its historical high back in late April. Since then, it has entered into a consolidation phase.

I have three expert advisors which all auto-trade the same EUR/USD market, i.e. Forex Autopilot (FAPS), Forex Tracer and Bogie but on different time periods. I will show you how they all fair in the month of June. For comparison, all three were assigned with with same account level at the start of the month. Initial deposit: $1000; Fixed lot size: 0.1 lot. Here are their end results:

1st place: Bogie-NN-v8 end balance $2434 (143.4%) Approx. +1434 pips
2nd place: FAPS end-balance $1169 (+16.9%) Approx. +169 pips
3rd place: Tracer end balance $903 (-9.7%) Approx. -97 pips

EA Performance (Jun' 08)
Bogie
Tracer
FAPS
Time period
H1
M30
M1
Stop loss used
200
250
---
Absolute drawdown (% from initial deposit)
-3.6
-24.9
-28.7
Maximal drawdown (in term of pips)<100>250
>500
Final profits (in term of pips)
+1434
-91
+169

Final remarks:

1) Compared to previous month results, FAPS was slightly underperformed this month, but its overall results since the start of the year were impressive. June was the fifth profitable month of this year.

2) Bogie-NN-v8 had a very strong month in June as it outperformed others during this market phase. At many occasions, it did superbly by selling at the tops and buying at the lows.

3) Tracer was recently launched. Unlike FAPS, it uses a fixed stop loss level of 250 pips, thus giving you the comfort of knowing its risk limit. Unfortunately, June was a volatile month which in turn resulted the EA to hit the bump twice. Despite all that, Tracer EA showed great resilience and nearly made it back to the positive.

I am not sure what July will bring, but i have high hopes on three of them. If the current trend continues, Bogie is the one to look out for. If the Euro continues to gain momentum towards the upside, FAPS and Tracer should be back to exhibiting their real strengths.

Friday 25 July 2008

Missed Opportunities and Price Reversal with Yen-Crosses Pairs Friday

Friday
No trade

I've been picking up a lot of long signals in the yen-crosses markets lately with the fk software. Looking at the market movements today and the possible trade setups this morning, I was really sorry to say that we'd just missed some golden opportunities to score a few hundred pips for the 100-pip system, as the yen-crosses pairs rebounded with the price reversal pattern.

It happened on the day after our techincal bias was switched to the neutral stance, given a score of (44 -56). If we'd stayed a day longer, we'd be in the money.

Amyway, looking forward to next week trading.

Thursday 24 July 2008

Picking Up Yen-Crosses Signals Thursday

European Session
No. of signal recommendations: 3
End-of-session results: EUR/JPY (-10 pips), AUD/JPY (+35 pips) and CHF/JPY (+5 pips)
Max potential: Over 70 pips

US session
No. of signal recommendations: 1
End-of-session results:GBP/JPY (-40 pips)
Max potential: 10 pips

100-pip System
Dynamic entries: 1
Max profit:
AUD/JPY: +20

>> Click Here for My Live Forex Trading Sessions !

Plenty of yen-crosses trades this week. I stayed conservative today, with only one 100-pip trade setup on the AUD/JPY signal and with minimum risk exposure. Unfortunately, we had a mini sell-off in the late afternoon. A tough day to be in the market but I did OK.

Wednesday 23 July 2008

Mixed Performance in Yen-Crosses Markets Wednesday

US Session
No. of signal recommendations: 2
End-of-session results: AUD/JPY (-20 pips) and CHF/JPY (-30 pips)
Max potential: 10 pips

European and Late Session
No trade

I saw mixed performance from the yen-crosses pairs today. Despite having the right technical bias and trade signals, I felt that my timing was slightly off in the current market situations.

Tuesday 22 July 2008

Yen-Crosses Continue Higher Tuesday

US Session
No. of signal recommendations: 2
End-of-session results: EUR/JPY (+30 pips) and CHF/JPY (+5 pips)
Max potential: Over 50 pips !

The Japanese Yen crosses are still higher today thanks to the recent recovery in US stocks.

Monday 21 July 2008

Profitable Start to the Week Monday

European Session
No. of signal recommendations : 1
End-of-session results: USD/CHF (+20 pips)
Max potential: Over 40 pips !

The PPI news came out in tune with our technical bias. An easy ride for over 40-pip gains during the session.

Sunday 20 July 2008

News Trading Calendar 21.07.08 - 25.07.08

A modest week with economic data and we remain bearish on the US dollar. Let's hope we can pick up some good entries during our intraday scans.

Monday - 21 July (quoted in UK time)
8.15 am CHF PPI

Tuesday - 22 July
1.30 pm CAD Retail Sales

Wednesday - 23 July
9.30 am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
11 am GBP CBI Industrial Orders
12 pm CAD CPI

Thursday - 24 July
9.00 am EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index
9.30 am GBP Retail Sales
3.00 pm USD Existing Home Sales

Friday - 25 July
9.30 am GBP Prelim GDP
1.30 pm USD Durable Goods Orders
3.00 pm USD New Home Sales

Saturday 19 July 2008

This Week (14 - 18 July) Performance Overview

A brief recap on the major pair results:

Monday No Trade
Tuesday No Trade
Wednesday +25 pips
Thursday +70 pips
Friday No Trade

We're up +95 pips for the week, and only +115 pips for the month on the major pairs with the main trading system.

July has been a tough month for trading due to recent financial chaos caused by the possible demise of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. I believe the financial and oil market situations will continue to set the tone for the forex markets for the rest of this month.

My advise is to trade the conservative major pairs and avoid volatile yen-crosses pairs during this period of financial instability. Always book easy profits and never let winners turning into losers. Choppy market conditions are set to continue.

There are still two weeks of trading left in this month. I would very much like to see July to be the sixth consecutive profitable month since the launch back in February.

Thursday 17 July 2008

Profitable Start with the Majors and Choppy Markets Thursday

European Session
No. of signal recommendations : 4
End-of-session results: GBP/USD (+50 pips), EUR/USD (+25 pips), USD/CHF (0 pip) and USD/JPY (-5 pips)
Max potential: Over 110 pips !

End-of-session results: +70 pips for the majors today.

For the 100-pip system, choppy market conditions caused many of the dynamic stops to be triggered. In general, I use 2 x risk profit target. Despite a great start, trading conditions have evolved from pretty straightforward to downright non-tradable later in the day.

Wednesday 16 July 2008

One EUR/USD Trade Wednesday

European Session
No. of signal recommendations: 1
End-of-session results: EUR/USD (+25 pips)
Max potential: Over 35 pips

US and Late Sessions
No trade

100-pip System
Dynamic entries: 1
Current profit:
EUR/USD: +40

The system continues to do well with the EUR/USD trades. As observed a few times over the last two weeks, trading conditions have been tricky and are greatly affectly by the heavy decline in the financial markets. Today, I had only one conservative, breakeven trade setup with the euro which gave me 40-pip profit almost instantly.

Tuesday 15 July 2008

Dollar Under Siege and Yen-Crosses Sell-off Tuesday

European Session
No. of signal recommendations: 2
End-of-session results: EUR/JPY (-70 pips) and CHF/JPY (+10 pips)
Max potential: Over 35 pips

US Session
No. of signal recommendations: 2
End-of-session results: GBP/JPY (-70 pips) and AUD/JPY (-10 pips)
Max potential: -

100-pip System
Dynamic entries: 1
Current profit:
CHF/JPY +10

An action-packed day from the start of the Asian session, with the Euro rallied to a record high in London Session. There was no automated trade setup with the major pairs today.

We had only one 100-pip trade setup on one of the yen-crosses signals. I purposely missed out the rest due to the unimproved trade entry condition. It was the right decision as the yen-crosses were heavily sold-off later in the day.

Monday 14 July 2008

Waiting for Action Monday

Monday
No Trade

Despite the initial pullback, Euro, Sterling and other non-US currencies continued with their previous day trends to rally against the dollar in the later sessions. We made the right bias today but were not involved in today's action.

On the other note, we just missed out on the GBP/JPY trade by a few pips as the market indeed moved towards the projected the 100-pip level. Nonetheless, it was a risk-free breakeven trade for the set TPs = 80 and 100. Profits were secured if using lower TP targets of 40 and 60 pips .

Friday 11 July 2008

Dollar Slumps and Late Winner Friday

European Session
No. of signal recommendations: 1
End-of-session results: AUD/USD (-20 pips)

The markets finally woke up after a long sleep. Today, we saw the US dollar index sank to the lowest level since 23 April. Unfortunately this time round, the "system" failed to spot those extraordinary trading opportunities in the US dollar markets.

Late Session
No. of signal recommendations: 1
End-of-session results: GBP/JPY (+40 pips)

100-pip System
Dynamic entries: 1
Max profits:
GBP/JPY +70

We ended this week trading with a late winner in the yen-crosses market.

Thursday 10 July 2008

Dealing the Wrong Markets Thursday

European Session
No. of signals recommendations: 2
End-of-session results: GBP/JPY (-15 pips) and AUD/JPY (-30 pips)

US Session
No. of signals recommendations: 1
End-of-session results: EUR/JPY (-15 pips)

Well, everything was quiet on the economic front, but soon after Paulson comments, the dollar slipped. We were not involved in the US dollar markets today but had some tough time dealing with the choppy conditions as seen in the yen-crosses pairs.

Wednesday 9 July 2008

Trading Sideways Markets with Caution Wednesday

European Session
No. of signal recommendations: 1
End-of-session results: EUR/USD (+10 pips)
Max potential: Over 40 pips !

100-pip System
Dynamic entries: 1
Max profits:
EUR/USD +30

Many of the markets are currently moving in the sideways direction. The sideways actions gave us some fast pips this week. And this trend may continue further. It is best to lock in profits while ahead.

Tuesday 8 July 2008

Back to Work and Mixed Performance Tuesday

Europe Session
No. of signal recommendations: 2
End-of-session results: GBP/USD (+40 pips) and USD/CAD (-10 pips)
Max potential: Over 100 pips !

100-pip System
Dynamic entries: 2
Max profits:
GBP/USD +40 (out)
USD/CAD +20 (out)

We resumed trading after a brief holiday pause. Not a bad start today - the first two signals of the week immediately produced over 100 pips during the early session before the midday price reversal. Unfortunate for the 100-pip system, GBP/USD was stopped at b/e, while USD/CAD was a loser today after recording two consecutive 100-pip gains back on 27 June and 2 July.

Btw, last month June trading report is ready for viewing.

Friday 4 July 2008

Neutral Stance And US Holiday Friday

Friday
No trade

Based on the latest technical sentiment data, I currently have no bias in the US dollar stance. I will review today's thin market action and deliver the watchlist for Monday trading on Sunday evening.

Thursday 3 July 2008

ECB Trichet Remarks Halt Dollar Slides Thursday

100-pip System
Dynamic entries: 2
Max. profits:
GBP/USD +20 pips (out)
USD/JPY +20 pips (out)

It was a confusing day for the forex market with both the non-farm payrolls data and the ECB press conference dominating the same schedule on an unusual Thursday. Prior to these events, both our trades were briefly in profit before being stopped out by Trichet comments.

Wednesday 2 July 2008

100-pip Target Hit - USD/CAD

The 100-pip gain came faster than expected with today's trade.

Non-Farm Payrolls Job Report Due Tomorrow Wednesday

100-pip System
Dynamic entries: 1
Current profits:
USD/CAD +80 pips

The ADP employment report came out first before tomorrow's NFP report. The report was largely "in tune" with our daily technical sentiment data. The news gave us a sizable profit with the USD/CAD position.

Tuesday 1 July 2008

Hello July and Bright Start Tuesday

European Session
No. of signal recommendations: 3
End-of-session results: EUR/USD (+40 pips), USD/CHF (+35 pips) and GBP/JPY (+100 pips)
Max potential: Over 250 pips !

100-pip System
Dynamic entries: 3
Current profits:
GBP/JPY+60
EUR/USD +50
USD/CHF +50

It's the start of July trading and we already had a few winners. Later, I will review the end-of-session results for the month of June. The 100-pip results for June stood at +916 pips.

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