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Marcus says that Forex AutoPilot (FAP) has some internal indicators to close losing trades but surely 500pips should be enough to close a bad trade?
My initial thought:
System drawdown is always a concern in every expert advisor system. Unfortunately, I have no further clue about the FAP's trade exit mechanism. Perhaps, we should forward your query to Marcus. By the way, using SL parameter is the only sure choice to exit the trade at predefined risk limit.
FAP support team's reply:
Yes, like all systems, it sometimes make losing trades. Only 4% of losing trades according to history. 96% winners. Recommend this reader to perform backtests to understand how the system works. The system will stay in loss until it finds a signal to close trade. If it does not happen (no market condition to reverse the trend) then the system will close the losing trade on 1st of april.
My second thought:
It only occurs to me now that the Forex Autopilot system will automatically reset itself when a new month begins, i.e. all open positions in the previous month will be closed. This should make things easy and interesting. So, let's study its past performance on a monthly basis.
The following monthly results are based on a starting balance of $1000, lot size = 0.1 and TP = 20 pips for every month:
Jan 08: 17 trades /16 winners +275 pips or +$275 (+27%)
Feb 08: 21 trades /20 winners +378 pips or +$385 (+38%)
Mar 08: 41 trades /40 winners +674 pips or +$680 (+68%)
Apr 08: 13 trades /12 winners -149 pips or -$140 (-14%)
May 08: 7 trades /6 winners +31 pips or +$23 (+2.3%)
Jun 08: 13 trades /12 winners +160 pips or +$169 (+16.9%)
Jul 08: 16 trades/ 15 winners +126 pips or $119 (+11.9%)
Aug 08: 4 trades /3 winners -779 pips or -$776 (-77.6%)
Sep 08: 12 trades /11 winners -523 pips or -$543 (-54.4%)
Oct 08: 5 trades /4 winners +40 pips or +$40 (+4%) - updated 1 Oct
(Members are asked to redownload the new FAP robot from the membership page asap.)
Balancing the system drawdown and understanding the system potential is the key of using the Forex Autopilot ea. Therefore, more backtest plus forward monthly results (hopefully to be used as benchmark) will be added here for reference.
38 comments:
Lloyd - Your live account entered a long position on 3/18 at 1.5822. On 3/19 it stop lossed at 1.5611. Did the EA automatically close with a loss or did you enter that order manually? I'm questioning it because my FAP took a long position on 3/18 at 1.5821 (almost identical to you) and never exited. I'm currently sitting on a 400 pip loss.
Hi Lloyd, that's both interesting and scary. I guess we need more testing on the EA and maybe not use the EA during very volatile periods.
Craig, you have proved that my backtest results are indeed correct. But there should be variations on the trade entry level depending on which broker you use. The trade should be still opened like yours. Given that the EA was already up over +600 to 800 pips this month (depending on which FAP updates), the pullback was understandable. If you have invested early in the month, you have an easy option to end your month in positive. Else, your position will be auto-closed on 1st April if the trade was not exited by FAP or manually by then.
TJ, I would suggest to evaluate the EA on a monthly basis and finding its norm performance. Perhaps, it can add to our confidence by setting the monthly profit target/baseline first.
Lloyd,
Please kindly share what is your setting for FAP? So far I'm on -300 pips but surprisingly enough this EA give me positive pips. Losing that big pips on real account is indeed scary.
GG, there is no secret. Simply using the default setting. This autopilot ea continues to pull out surprises in the last 2 months and always bounces back to yield positive pips. Two words to describe it - profitable and resilient.
Lloyd
how did you calculate 111 dollar in profit i dont because you had lose of 100 and some odd dollars.
This EA always closes out any opening trade at the end of the month. The first loss seen at the month of april was calculated as part of the March 's positions. The last trade is unrealised loss. I have not included it because it is subjected to change later. So far, 6 trades have been closed out in April for +108 pips. I will keep updating the report throughout the month, so you will learn its running P/L too.
the take profit is that set by you or the program.. if the program dont they have buy and exit point in the program?
why don't try back testing on the m5 chart you will get better modeling quality..however demo forward testing is still the best..
Nabil, the exit is defined by the take profit (TP) level plus an exit strategy at the end of the month.
Hi Lloyd, I have found the site very interesting so far. Just started looking into the forex market a week ago.
So far Autopilot has made a couple of deals and on two accounts it has made two losses , big ones, almost blowing up two accounts. Both were on the EUR/USD.
Can you tell me what you think the best currencies to use it on are? Also is there a way to get autopilot to work on two base pairs on the same account. It always seems to just work on the one deal no matter how many curriences I have it set on?
Thanks
Good site!
Haz, as metioned earlier, testing needs time. 1-week testing hardly tell. Start testing at the beginning of the month if possible. This autopilot automatically reset at the start of the month. Blow up? You should be riding on the Euro strength last week and this week. Check your account size and the lot size you traded.
Lloyd
Hi Lloyd! New and dedicated reader here - thank you for all the information thus far. I purchased FAPS this week and am currently in the process of trying to run several methodical backtests with controlled settings in order to try and best understand how changes to different settings are handled. However, I'm having a difficult time getting the Strategy Tester in MT4 to provide results. I have imported all the historical data that I need and have run with various setting but have never gotten the Strategy Tester to spit out valid results. Here are the settings I tried last: 2008.04.19 07:43:03 ForexAutoPilot inputs: Lots=0.5; LotsRiskReductor=1; MaxOrders=1; MaxLots=0; aaa=13; bbb=14; TakeProfit=20; StopLoss=0; TrailingStop=50; SpanGator=0.5; SlipPage=3; SafetyGapDemarker=0.2; SafetyGapWPR=0.
I am trying to have the LotsRiskReductor manage the lot size which is why I changed MaxLots=0. Can you provide some pointers to me either via this blog or directly at jtw.trader(at)gmail.com? Thank you so much - I hope to become an active member and provide helpful backtest information to your readers.
Ok I figured it out. I started with a demo account on Interbank. I opened a demo account with forexte and was able to get everything to work.
Backtest #1
Date Range: 3/1/08 - 4/10/08
Starting capital: $5000
Modified Variables: Lots=0; LotsRiskReductor=1; Additional 0 added to TakeProfit, TrailingStop, and Slippage values to account for broker using 5 decimal places.
Results of #1: NetProfit-$4946; 43 trades, 5 short and 38 long, 95.4% win rate; $1,140 drawdown (but I believe this was an end-of-month close and not based on an indicator)
Thanks Jason. The EA indeed starts over every new month. This is why I choose to monitor the EA on a monthly basis. I backtest via Alpari.
Hi again Lloyd! So I've been forward-testing ForexAutopilot with ForexTE (the dealer they recommend) for a few days not with good results. However, I recently read a lot of forums that say that any dealer using MT4 are essentially trading against traders and that they use unfair practices (stop-hunting, etc.) to tilt the scale in their direction. Do you have any information about this? Will any of this impact the ForexAutopilot EA since it never sets an actual S/L? Finally, have you had one of your actual accounts perform differently than your demo accounts to the extent that it seemed there was some hedging action against you?
Jason, it's good to hear from you again. I suppose there should be only little difference between demo and live accounts. I won't suspect anything but do shed some light on the hedging action matter. May be you know something that I don't ?
Lloyd
Hey Lloyd. Ok, I think I got to the bottom of this whole metatrader dealer stop-hunting thing. Read the blog at http://www.earnforex.com/blog/2008/02/mt4-brokers-accused-in-being-scam/ and it helps explain what I was seeing. Essentially, "virtual dealer plugin" was thought to have been leaked into a forum on ForexFactory. It appeared that the plugin allowed dealers (market makers) to delay orders causing unnecessary slippage - especially during times of heavy trading, etc. So - sorry for any unnecessary alarm! Again, fairly new guy here - but not to fear, I am actually a data analyst and statistician in my day job and am looking to see if I can use that to venture into active trading, primarily on technicals.
Hi Lloyd
Just getting to grips with the Forex Autopilot software. Opened demo accounts with Forexte, FXDD and InterbankFX. Have set them all up as per the Autopilot default instructions - $5,000, .5 lots, Max orders 1, LotsRiskReductor .3, increased zeros for Forexte.
On 1st May 2008 Forex Autopilot opened a "buy" trade at $1.56390, T/P $1.56590. Today is 7th March 2008, the trade is still open with a loss position which has been as high as $1,400 - now back down to $650.
Questions:
(1)From reading the Autopilot FAQ's it seems as if this trade will remain open until the position reaches $1.56590 - is this correct? If it reaches the end of the month it will close at an unrealised loss, then open up again and continue on until it profits - have I got this right?
(2)Does the setting in LotsRiskReductor have any effect on the way the trades work? I have set it to .3 in line with suggested prudent money management of 2-3%.
(3) What exactly is "drawdown", and how might it apply to the above scenario and settings.
Many thanks for any advice.
Jean Littman
Jean,
(1) The autopilot will reset every month. It will not reopen the earlier position, but searching for new trading opportunities in the new month instead.
(2)LotsRiskReductor will define the risk size. LotsRiskReductor can be from 1 to 10. 1 means 10% of risk of deposit. 10 means 100% risk. However, I've not tried this feature yet.
(3) Drawdown is simply unrealised losses. It is best to limit the drawndown level to own affordable risk amount.
Regards,
Lloyd
Lloyd
Many thanks for your responses - definitely a great help for a rookie! Congrats on your blog - it is very good.
Cheers
Jean
Hi, Lloyd. I've had ForexAutoPilot running (with recommended setup) on a $5000 demo account since 04-Apr-08, and it's achieved a $387.20 closed Loss, together with an open trade at -$370.00, as at 22:45 this evening UK time (13-May-08). Not very encouraging! Regards, Richard.
I also meant to say that this period included a Buy trade taken on 18-Apr-08 and closed out at midnight on 30-Apr-08 (end of the month) for a loss of $1,955.00. I'm not sure what happened to the publisher's claimed 'internal indicators' that determine when ForexAutoPilot should close out a trade in such negative territory! Also during the time that this losing trade persisted, of course, no other trades could be placed (to try to profit from the falling EUR/USD price), because of FAP's design restriction that only one trade can be current at any time. Double Whammy!!
I'm not too hopeful of a happy outcome for FAP, given these design restrictions .... no calculated Stop Loss or Trade Exit Criteria, and 'lockout' of potential profitable trades while a losing trade persists until the end of the month.
Richard, April was the first down month of the year. To be fair, we probably need at least 2-3 month testing to understand the working of this EA. I have already marked down some of its past month performance in the post.
Unfortunately, there was indeed no trade exit mechanism besides the end-of-month reset. Not sure this is a good or bad thing. Thus, May should be an interesting month to follow. So far, only 3 trades has been closed out.
You should be able to get the EA trading concept by now: the more closed trades you have, the more profits you make.
The total P/L by the end of the month can be calculated by:
(n-1) x (tp) - (dd)
n being the total of open trades in a month. tp is the take profit level. dd is the final p/l of the last open trade of the month, usually a drawdown.
Hi guys, I have just purchase the AutoPilot have got it install. However there isn't any action since 1 week past, may I have some advise please?
Thanks
Irene
Irene,
For starter, simply make sure you have enabled the expert advisor function and also check for any error message from the terminal.
Hi Lloyd,
Thanks for your reply, I have got it settle and have 3 trades running with profit(2 with profit 20pips and 1 trade with loss of -90pips) and I closed it manually as I saw it against the trend.
Does AutoPilot always goes against the trend? As I saw all 3 trades are against the trend..^o^..
By the way, would like to check regards with your Day Trading Strategy. I understand that you are using it with Forex Killer, do you mean that you are currently using both AutoPilot & Forex Killer together? Can it be done so?
Thanks
Irene
Irene, from what I've observed so far, forexautopilot is definitely a trend-following system, may be on a longer timeframe. I've seen the EA chasing a good trend when the Euro was making new highs back in Feb - Apr.
I run forexautopilot separetely while I make use of the forex killer software along with my daily trading plan.
Lloyd
I dont think it can catch sell signals !!!
I dont think it can recognize sell trades !!!
Dear Lloyd, thanks for your support. By the way, do you use Auto Pilot only for EUR/USD pairs? If I take up your Day Trading Strategy do I have to purchase Forex Killer?
Thanks
Irene
Nabil, I agree with you, most of my signals were buy ! We shall see when the FAPS recognises the downtrend for the Euro.
Irene, forex killer purchase is not necessary. I share my day trading signals which involve the use of the signal software as well as my charting method.
Hi Lloyd, I am new to Forex. I started using forex auto pilot last night. $5000 demo with Forex Trader Forex meta as recommended, it closed two trades today EUR/USD $200 each total $400 automatic trades.
I used it on GBP/USD but found it set the T/P to high and would not close trade, even when up by $330. I set it manual and closed at $180 on that trade and set it manually to close another trade at $100. I also tried it with USD/JPY and it took a sell position, I closed it manually at $74, total tonight is $5798, not bad for a few hours sitting on the beach if it was a real account,
Ill keep you posted.
Great site keep it coming..
Kind Regards
Colin
Does someone have information about how well the FX autopilot performs on other pairs / timeframes than the default EUR/USD 1M?
a statistical table like
month/year 0308 0408 0508
EUR/USD 1M 200 65 145 pips
USD/JPY 5M 130 91 199 pips
USD/JPY 1H 170 35 222 pips
would be very helpful
Hi Lloyd,
A couple of fairly basic questions on FAP if you don't mind..
1) A fairly common question seems to come up re large drawdowns and FAPs inability to open an opposing trade to offset a trade thats running in the red. Obviously this in itself is not a problem...it's the end result that's important. Having said that, and knowing nothing about how the EA works, would it be possible to open 2 x 1min charts and set FAPs so that on one chart it only enters short positions, and on the other it only enters longs? Or would FAPs still recognise an open trade in one chart and refuse to open a counter trade?
2) Do you know what would happen if you lost your internet connection when FAP was going to close a loosing trade - once your connection was restored, would FAP recognise that a close signal had been generated and immediately close the trade, or is is possible for the exit trigger to be skipped in this scenario, and for the loosing trade to continue running once internet connection was reestablished?
Thanks for your help,
Ben
Ben,
1) By using the magic number feature, you can assign the FAP program to two different charts and setting up your long and short trades. It will be interesting to see their results, let me know of your progress.
2) If you had set any open trades with SL and TP levels, those levels will be registered by the trading server and will be executed despite losing internet connection. However, for FAP trade without SL, the trade will definitely skip the designated exit trigger. If the exit trigger still presents (depending on the coding), the trade will be closed as soon as your connection was resumed.
Lloyd
I love FAP ! It's a very good thing and helps me to succeed. I have it running on a demo account, but I also have a live account installed in a different folder. So when FAP puts an order, I monitor, what's going to happen. More then likely it is going to be a profit trade, so if it looks okey, I put an order of 5 lots as well on my live account. And I've noticed that more then likely, that my order will score. I normally stop my order when it reaches 500 - 800 USD profit. Doing like this can score 1500 - 2500 per just few trades. FAP has really improved my profit although I'd never leave it on a live account on its own. I just simply do not trust it fully. I think it needs more improvement.
Inga,
I'd wondered if manual monitoring was the key to getting FAP to work. Do you mind me asking, what settings are you using on your live account?
Tanya
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